does ron paul really stand a chance?

i’d pick either paul or obama before giuliani or clinton, but i’m still puzzled as to whether or not i believe the forementioned stands any chance of becoming the next president of the united states of america.

take ron paul. simply put, if digg is to be believed, ron paul is the most popular republican candidate. even so, he still has to become the most popular candidate amongst the republicans themselves in order to win primary. the debates are not always that clear to interpret, as the republican fox debate 5.9.07 shows: apparently it took 34 minutes into the debate before ron paul got to speak, and by then guiliani had spoken 3 times already. often when ron paul spoke in the debate, there was someone in the background giggling (guiliani?). and apparently the audience were quite divided – “dr paul” had his fair share of both applauses and boo:s. but then there are also the claims that fox is lying about the post debate poll.

now what am i to understand from this? the main point at digg was:

It is obvious that, after seeing the Fox News Debates on Sept. 5th, 2007, the mainstream media and GOP see Ron Paul as enough of a threat to stop ignoring him, and to start ridiculing him.

that being true, is it an indication of ghandi’s words “first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” or, …then they kill you?

furthermore, has the old media realized the balance of power and thus logically ignoring ron paul & obama and believing in giuliani & clinton? some examples:

  • a search at hbl.fi reveals that ron paul gets zero hits, whereas giuliani gets three.
  • i remember reading their editorial about a month ago, where they explained that giuliani and hillary are the two most popular candidates and that the election most likely will be about those two. (on the other hand they do write a lot of different opinions in their editorials).
  • googling ron paul at aftonbladet returns results mainly from the forum of aftonbladet, whereas hillary clinton and giuliani returns news articles. funnily enough, the first one entitled “guiliani’s daughter supports competitor” (obama, as revealed by her facebook entry.)

but if guiliani or clinton wins, is that to be understood as a confirmation of the wisdom of the conventional press, or that that they simply got it their way? i’m not accusing hbl or aftonbladet for supporting either candidate, i’m just curious as to the balance between these three:

  • the conventional press being caught in a self-fulfilling prophecy
  • they just don’t have a clue about what’s going on
  • they actually do have a better understanding of the balance of power

hi robin!

a few days ago my friend robin appeared on national television in new zealand, and the interview was available on the internet as well, so i had a chance to view it.

robin on nz tv

i feel the urge to inform you that i took about 20 random snapshots of the video, and this was the best one i could get.

anyway. here is the file for those of you who would like to view robin being interviewed on new zealand tv.

let me give you a brief summary. robin is wearing a black suit and is being interviewed as the president of the post primary teacher’s association. the interviewer wants to hear arguments for the state to invest more into teaching and robin delivers, bundled with a lot of mumbo jumbo. the main point being that 30+ students per class makes it impossible to establish personal relationships with the students. and since the state wants a “move to personalized environment”, something needs to be done. (more teachers, more money, i suppose.)

to further argue his case, robin tells that in finland (yes, finland!), you need at least a master’s degree to teach in any area of education and they (we) only choose about 15% of the applicants. well ain’t that a bold statement! it sure wasn’t hard for me to become a substitute teacher while still being in high school (gymnasium). as for the 15%, according to the åbo akademi statistics (representative for the swedish-speaking minority), 88% of the applicants 2006 were admitted. somehow i doubt the situation for the rest of the country should be very different.

but hey, who the hell cares, robin mentioned finland on new zealand television!